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7th Rangers: PAS to win in KT byelection by 7,000 votes majority

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PAS to win in KT byelection by 7,000 votes majority
Saturday, January 17, 2009
I would concur with him, as most of the time his predictions are quite close. BN some how or rather likes to score it's own goal. In Malaysiakini, repected political analyst, Ong Kian Ming predicts the above. He says, " A political analyst worth his or her salt should be willing to put his or her analytical skills to the test by trying to guess the voting intentions of those who did not indicate their voting preference using a variety of tools and techniques.

My estimates show that the Malay vote will swing to PAS by approximately 4%. Given that my estimate of the Malay support for BN was 47% in 2008, this means that the overall Malay support for the BN will fall to 43% or that PAS will win 57% of the Malay vote (not including postal votes).

With an estimated Malay turnout of 81% (slightly less than 2008) and by excluding spoilt votes and votes for the independent candidate (which I estimate to total approximately 2%), this translates into a majority of 7,720 for PAS among the Malay voters.

Among the non-Malays (mostly Chinese), I estimate that the turnout will decrease by approximately 10% from 65% in 2008 to 55% in 2009. Among the non-Malays who will turn out, I estimate a BN support level of 45%. This represents a significant 20% swing in the non-Malay vote from 2008.The Malay and non-Malay majorities calculated above results in an 8,230 majority in favour of PAS. However, there are approximately 1,300 postal votes in this constituency. Assuming that 90% of the postal votes will go to the BN, this means that BN will have a majority of 1,170 votes from postal votes alone.

Subtracting this figure from the 8,230 majority, I arrive at the final prediction of 7,060 votes or approximately 7,000 votes. This represents a 3,700 vote increase from my initial prediction of 3,300 votes for PAS. In full from Malaysiakini.
posted by Major D Swami (Retired) @ 8:23 AM  
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