Although the prime minister, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, prefers completing his government’s full term, many pundits believe UMNO is manipulating the political environment to force an early election. The last general election in November 2022 led to a hung parliament, where no single party or coalition could form a government.

The YDPA at the time played a major role in trying to facilitate the formation of a government that could lead to political stability and focus on running the nation. Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional, led by UMNO, became partners, even after the hot election campaign which saw them as fierce adversaries.

The coming general election is also expected to lead to party fragmentation, due to a divided Malay vote, where no single party or coalition can form a government on their own. Consequently, the coming election will not lead to the formation of any government with a ‘Rakyat’s mandate’. There will be another formation of some type of ‘unity government’ once again.

Except for PAS, all parties in the coming general election face challenges they didn’t face in the previous election. This time around, most of the parties will be running either solo or in a very loose coalition as compared to 2022.

UMNO only won 26 seats in 2022, which was considered a dismal performance, the worst in modern history. The challenge for UMNO is to find some electoral popularity once again.

This is perhaps why UMNO pushed for the Johor and Melaka state elections, to gain strong results which can carry over to the general election. For UMNO to play a major role in the next federal government, it needs around 45-50 to make it the largest Malay party.

To achieve this, UMNO requires other parties to have floundering performances, where it can take away seats. Bersatu will be UMNO’s primary target. Bersatu is in a very weak position due to its split and members defecting to Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin’s Reset movement.

PAS is playing a game of shrouds with Bersatu and Hamzah’s group. Whichever party wins a critical mass of seats will become a serious partner of Perikatan Nasional (PN).

There are rumours that Bersatu is looking for lifelines in other directions. If UMNO deserts Pakatan Harapan, Bersatu might try to fill the gap, although such overtures have been rejected by Anwar.

All these angles and potential moves can only be speculative at this stage. Hamzah’s reset movement, yet to have a party platform, could potentially take away many of Bersatu’s seats in the coming general election.

This would create a massive split, which makes for a totally unpredictable scenario. Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli’s Parti Bersama will potentially challenge PKR and the DAP. There is a belief that seven or eight PKR MPs will resign and cross over, but this hasn’t happened, probably to Rafizi’s frustration. The DAP is not safe from Bersama, as voters dissatisfied now have a better option than not coming out to vote.

Disaffected PH voters now have an alternative. However, how well Bersama will actually perform in a general election is a big question. We only need to look back to 2022 when former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed formed Pejuang, where all candidates lost their deposits, including Dr Mahathir himself.

Many influencers are now talking up the chances of UMNO in the coming state elections. However, how UMNO will actually perform is still a large unknown. There is a lot of conjecture around at the moment, rather than any real factual information.

There are now lots of new choices for voters who, as a group, haven’t had the time to absorb yet. While all the talk is going on about new parties to contest GE16, PAS is there as an unknown quantity. There are possibilities that PAS will now be in a position to pick up many Bersatu seats.

All the current disarray possibly runs in PAS’s favour. There are 166 parliamentary seats in the peninsula, and many more of these seats will be in play in GE16 than were in the last election. The coming election will be much more competitive, with up to 60 seats that will be competitive.

There will also be four to five candidates running in each seat, and this doesn’t include potential independents standing. This will add to the complexity of the vote. The results will most probably be more fragmented than GE15.

The key to GE16 on the peninsula is to become the largest Malay party to make any substantive claim for the prime minister’s post. To become prime minister, the candidate must show the YDPA that he has solid support.

This means that Sabah and Sarawak will potentially play a major role in deciding who will become the next prime minister in GE16. Consequently, the field is open as to who can become Malaysia’s next prime minister.

There are as many as five candidates. The actual composition of the coalition that will make up the government is unknown. Anyone who tells you that they know at present is just guessing. – June 13, 2026